CRE Refinance Gap Report | Find Your Loan Maturity Risk Before Your Lender Does
Free Pre-Underwriting Diagnostic

Find Out If Your Deal Qualifies
Before Your Lender Tells You It Doesn't.

The lending environment that originated your loan no longer exists. Lenders are applying stricter DSCR thresholds, debt yield floors, and LTV caps that most CRE investors have never modeled. This tool runs your maturing loan through current underwriting standards and calculates your exact refinance gap — in under 10 minutes.

No rate sheets. No lender lists.
Specific to your deal.
Free. No obligation.

Your Original Loan Assumptions No Longer Reflect Reality.

Four things have changed since your loan was originated — and none of them are working in your favor.

Problem 01
Rates Are 200–350 bps Higher Than Your Note Rate
A deal that underwrote at 1.74x DSCR on a 4.10% IO note may come in at 1.08x when re-underwritten at today's market rate of 6.75%. The DSCR threshold has not moved. Your NOI has not grown fast enough to compensate.
Problem 02
Debt Yield Floors Are Disqualifying Deals That Look Fine on Paper
Debt yield — NOI divided by loan amount — is now a primary gating metric at most institutional lenders. A deal with 1.28x DSCR and a 7.8% debt yield fails an 8.5% floor. Most borrowers have never run this number.
Problem 03
Valuations Have Compressed. LTV Constraints Have Not.
Properties that appraised at 75% of loan value in 2021 are now at 95–100%+ LTV in many markets. A lender capping at 65% on a property worth less than it was will fund significantly less than the current balance.
Problem 04
The Timeline Is Shorter Than It Looks
Agency execution takes 60–90 days after application — and that's after third-party reports are ordered. A borrower who starts 6 months before maturity may already be too late for the most competitive execution options.
$929B
In commercial real estate loans are maturing between 2024 and 2026 — the largest wave of CRE debt maturities in over a decade. A significant portion will not qualify for refinance under current standards without capital structure intervention.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, 2024 Commercial Real Estate Finance Forecast
The borrowers who are in the most trouble are the ones who have not run the numbers yet. They assume refinancing is a rate negotiation. It is not. It is a qualification event — and lenders are running the math whether you are or not.

Four Steps. Under 10 Minutes. Deal-Specific Results.

This is not a generic calculator. It applies asset-type-specific lender benchmarks and runs your deal through three simultaneous underwriting constraints — the same ones a credit officer uses.

1

Enter Your Deal Profile

Asset type, loan balance, and months to maturity. The tool immediately loads the correct market rate benchmarks for your property category.

2

Input Current Financials

Trailing 12-month NOI, current market value, and original underwriting NOI. Live metrics update as you type — including current LTV and debt yield.

3

Confirm Debt Structure

Current rate, debt service, and exit costs. The tool models your spread versus market rate and calculates the true cost to exit your current loan.

4

Receive Your Gap Report

Enter your email and get your complete analysis: risk tier, binding constraint, gap amount, 3-scenario stress test, and capital stack solution paths.

Run Your Refinance Gap Analysis

Modeled against current lender underwriting standards by asset type. Specific to your deal — not a general estimate.

1
Deal Profile
2
Financials
3
Debt
4
Your Report
🏢 Deal Profile
Your asset type determines which lender benchmarks we apply. Every number below matters.
$
Minimum $750K.
Enter 1–24 months.
$

Six Outputs. Zero Generalities.

Every result is calculated from your specific inputs against current market benchmarks. Nothing is estimated. Nothing is averaged.

01

Your Refinance Gap — in Dollars

The specific dollar difference between your current loan balance and what today's lenders will actually fund. Not a range. Not an estimate. A number.

02

Risk Tier Classification

GREEN, YELLOW, RED, or CRITICAL — based on a weighted composite score across DSCR, debt yield, LTV, maturity timeline, and exit cost burden.

03

Binding Constraint Identification

The tool identifies which of the three lender constraints — DSCR, debt yield, or LTV — is most restrictive for your deal. That constraint determines the solution.

04

Three-Scenario Stress Test

Base case, moderate stress (+150 bps, -15% NOI, -10% value), and severe stress (+250 bps, -25% NOI, -20% value) — with a PASS/FAIL verdict on each.

05

Capital Stack Solution Paths

Three capital structure options — preferred equity injection, bridge-to-perm, and A/B note structure — with the most likely path highlighted for your tier.

06

Market Rate Analysis

The midpoint market rate for your asset type applied against your current note rate, with the rate spread shown in basis points — so you see exactly what the refi will cost.

This Tool Is Built Around How Lenders Actually Think.

Rate sheets and lender lists are not intelligence. This is intelligence.

📏

Debt Yield Is the New Primary Gate

Most borrowers monitor DSCR. Most lenders now lead with debt yield — a metric that is rate-agnostic and increasingly used as the first disqualifier. A deal can pass DSCR and fail debt yield simultaneously.

Floor: 8.0–10.0% depending on asset type and lender
💰

CMBS Exit Costs Are Systematically Underestimated

Defeasance and yield maintenance on 2020–2022 vintage CMBS loans can cost 2–5% of the loan balance. On a $5M loan, that is $100K–$250K that must come from equity before the first dollar of refinance proceeds.

This tool adds exit costs to the gap calculation automatically
⏱️

Agency Timelines Are Longer Than Borrowers Expect

Agency execution (Fannie/Freddie) is the most competitive option for qualifying multifamily deals. It is also 60–90 days from application to close — after third-party reports are complete. Six months out is too late.

Maturity flags: 9 months = warning, 6 months = critical
🏚️

Asset Type Is Now a Credit Decision

Office buildings that pencil on DSCR are being declined based on asset category risk alone. Most bank programs have tightened or paused new originations on office. Metrics are not enough — lender appetite matters.

Office: automatic risk escalation flag in this tool
🔍

Bridge Lenders Underwrite Exit, Not Entry

A bridge lender at 9.5% IO needs to know this deal can refinance to permanent financing in 18–24 months. If the forward underwriting doesn't work, the bridge lender won't fund — even if today's metrics qualify.

Exit scenario modeling is included in the stress test
💼

Sponsor Liquidity Is Scrutinized Post-Close

Lenders increasingly require liquid assets equal to 10% of the loan balance post-close. Sponsors who are well-capitalized on paper but cash-thin face reserve requirements of $250K–$500K on a $5M loan — discovered at credit committee, not at application.

Caught after $25K–$40K in third-party reports are spent

This Is Not Broker Marketing. This Is Pre-Underwriting Intelligence.

Capability Typical Broker Tool Refinance Gap Report
Tells you something new about your deal✗ No✓ Yes
Applies asset-type-specific lender benchmarks✗ No✓ Yes
Calculates debt yield (not just DSCR)✗ Rarely✓ Always
Identifies the binding constraint✗ No✓ Yes
Runs 3-scenario stress test✗ No✓ Yes
Includes exit / prepayment costs in gap✗ No✓ Yes
Accounts for rate spread vs. note rate✗ No✓ Yes
Recommends capital stack solution paths✗ No✓ Yes
Leads to a capital strategy conversation✗ Rate quote✓ Deal diagnosis

The Borrowers With the Most Options Are the Ones Who Move First.

Each month that passes removes one execution path. Here is what is still available — and when it closes.

12+ months
Full Optionality

Agency, bank, life co, bridge. All execution paths are open. Maximum lender competition. Best pricing.

9–12 months
Act Now

Application submitted. Third-party reports ordered. Agency still possible. Backup options being identified.

6–9 months
Urgency Zone

Agency execution is marginal. Bank or bridge only. Capital structure alternatives should be in motion.

3–6 months
High Risk

Agency off the table. One lender option, maybe two. Equity injection or bridge may be the only path.

<3 months
Emergency Protocol

Extension, forbearance, or maturity default risk is real. Intervention required immediately.

What Investors Ask Before Running the Analysis.

What is a refinance gap?

The refinance gap is the dollar difference between your current loan balance and the proceeds a lender will actually fund at refinance — calculated using today's market rate, debt yield floor, LTV cap, and DSCR threshold for your asset type. A positive gap means you will need to bring equity to the table at maturity.

Is this analysis specific to my deal or a generic estimate?

It is specific to your deal. The tool applies asset-type-specific market rate benchmarks, runs your actual NOI and loan balance through three simultaneous lender constraints, and identifies the binding constraint that limits your proceeds. No two outputs are the same.

What is debt yield and why does it matter?

Debt yield is NOI divided by loan amount. Unlike DSCR, it is rate-agnostic — meaning lenders can apply it regardless of current interest rates. It is increasingly used as the primary gating metric at institutional lenders. A deal can pass DSCR at the current rate and still fail a debt yield floor. Most CRE investors have never run this number on their loan.

What is the difference between this and a mortgage broker rate quote?

A rate quote tells you what a lender might charge. This tool tells you whether your deal qualifies at all — and by how much it fails or passes the three primary underwriting constraints. Knowing your gap before you engage a lender is the difference between a clean refinance process and an 11th-hour denial.

My deal scored RED or CRITICAL. What does that mean?

It means standard refinance on its current terms is unlikely without a change to the capital structure. It does not mean the deal is unresolvable. Three capital paths exist — preferred equity injection, bridge-to-perm, and A/B note structure. Which one is viable for your deal is what a Capital Structure Review is designed to determine.

What happens after I complete the analysis?

You receive your results immediately on screen. If your tier is RED or CRITICAL, you can book a 30-minute Capital Structure Review directly from the results page. That call reviews your specific gap, identifies which capital paths are still executable given your timeline, and gives you a clear diagnosis — not a sales pitch.

My loan matures in more than 12 months. Should I still run this?

Yes. The lenders who will refinance your loan are underwriting today's market standards — and those standards may tighten further. Running the analysis now tells you where you stand before conditions change, and gives you the maximum timeline to address any gaps without urgency premium.

What types of properties does this tool cover?

Multifamily (agency and bank), industrial, retail, office, hospitality, mixed-use, and bridge loans. Each asset type carries different market rate assumptions, debt yield floors, and maximum LTV thresholds — all sourced from current lender benchmarks and updated quarterly.

Your Maturity Date Has Not Changed.
Your Lender's Standards Have.

Run your deal through today's underwriting standards in under 10 minutes. Find out where your gap is before your lender does — while you still have time to act on it.

No cost. No obligation. No rate sheets. Deal-specific results in under 10 minutes.

Urban Skyline Investments, LLC provides educational information and consulting services related to business credit and commercial real estate financing. The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.

We do not offer or sell securities and we do not solicit investors. Nothing on this website constitutes an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any investment opportunity. Any examples or scenarios are hypothetical and not guarantees of results.

Urban Skyline Investments, LLC is not a lender, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Financing options referenced may be provided by third-party lenders. Users should perform their own due diligence and consult with licensed professionals before making financial decisions. Use of this website is at your own risk.

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